2011 Tour Championship Picks

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Update:  What a weekend!!  We hit our 50/1 longshot for a $5,000 payout for $100 bettors, and also went a perfect 3-0 in our head-to-head match ups.  Congratulations to those who were following my picks!  Below are my winning tickets (I waited a bit too long and got Bill Haas at 48/1).

I would like to be the first to welcome everyone to the 2011 Tour Championship. The players have battled all year long for the opportunity at this week’s 10 million dollar bonus and the right to call themselves the Fed Ex Cup Champion for 2011. All eyes will be on the Top 5 players in the Fed Ex Cup rankings this week as they control their own fate. With a win by Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar or Luke Donald, the Fed Ex Cup Championship will automatically go to that player (along with the substantial cash bonus). With that in mind, lets take a closer look at the golf course these players will be trying to conquer.

East Lake is the venue for the Fed Ex Cup Championship finale and it looks immaculate. With excellent weather in the forecast for most of the week, players will need to be at the top of their games making plenty of birdies. The Par 70, 7319-yard Atlanta golf course will challenge the players to maneuver around a demanding set up. It is very possible to shot a 63 or 64 but it is also possible to shot a 73 or 74. Look for the winning score this week to be in the neighborhood of –12.

One hole that always seems to get everyone’s attention is the 235-yard Par 3 finishing hole. Last year Jim Furyk made a ridiculous up and down to close out the championship on the final hole of the tournament. We can only hope this year has the same amount of excitement surrounding the finish.

I took a lot in consideration when making this weeks selections and one of the main things is player’s ability to putt. The course will be playing with shorter rough than usual, allowing players to get away with hitting the ball into the rough. Of course you would rather be hitting from the short grass, but there are some players who do not mind the longer stuff. This negates a lot of the driving and iron statistics and pushes the focus to putting. Lets take a look at the 6 we have selected to win this week in Atlanta.

NOTE: These are my premium picks, but I am posting them for FREE here at GolfPicks.net just as a special thank you for everyone who has been following my picks for the PGA season. Enjoy the picks below free of charge….

STEVE’S SIX PACK SYSTEM PICKS FOR TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP

Here are this week’s six-pack of golfers I like to win the tournament outright. **Odds are based on 5dimes.com – I highly recommend you have an account there, as they are the best golf betting site**

Nick Watney 15/1 – Nick Watney enters playing very well after finishing last week T22. He also enters with some confidence at East Lake. Last year Nick finished in a Tie for 4th in Atlanta, something that should help him this week. He is on of the Tour better iron players and is an excellent putter. Nick reminds me a lot of Geoff Ogilvy when he is on the greens, someone who’s name we also have in our Six Pack. Look for Watney to utilize his knowledge of the greens and be near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Jason Day 18/1 – Day is just too good of a golfer not to put in this Six Pack. He has had an absolutely amazing year but needs that big victory to complete it. That very well could occur this week in Atlanta. Day is one of the best scramblers on Tour, possibly because he puts himself in difficult situations far too often. His ability to make something out of nothing is a treat to watch and I feel we will be hearing, “Day makes another birdie” quite a lot this week.

Geoff Ogilvy 22/1 – Geoff is my favorite pick of the week. This golf course is almost in Geoff’s backyard and you know he has played it countless times. After a slow start to the year by his standards, Geoff has rebounded to climb within the cut line in each of the first 3 Fed Ex Cup Tournaments. Look for him to feed of this excellent play this week and show the people of Atlanta how this golf course is supposed to be played.

KJ Choi 22/1 – Kj finished last week with a T10 finish and looks to ride that excellent play into Atlanta. East Lake sets up well for a player like KJ, as it is the type of course you need to be somewhat meticulous on. There are plenty of small details the course designers have implemented, forcing players to pay close attention. Look for KJ to make very few mistakes (bogeys) this week and be in the running on Sunday.

Brandt Snedeker 25/1 – We are going with one of the best putters on Tour as our 5th selection. Look for Brandt to continue to roll in plenty of putts and seemingly get up and down from everywhere. Brandt is the type of player who can fire off 4 straight birdies no problem. I look for him to utilize this quick strike offensive game plan this week and get out to a quick start. His nerves will be tested if he is in the lead on Sunday though.

Bill Haas 50/1 – I was slightly surprised to see Bill at 50/1 because I feel East Lake is perfect for his game. Bill maneuvers around golf courses extremely well and seems to be confident with his game at the current time. I’ve watched him hit plenty of very nice iron shots and sink the 6-10 foot putts that are necessary to win golf tournaments recently. Look for Bill to continue to do this and hopefully avoid the disaster hole that has plagued him this year.

HEAD TO HEAD 72 HOLE MATCH UP PICKS

Please Note: All sportsbooks/bookmakers offer different head-to-head (match up) betting lines. You may not find these exact match ups at the bookie you are betting with. These were taken from www.5Dimes.com – I highly recommend you sign up for an account at 5Dimes.com to get these match ups and also the best golf betting odds out there (not to mention best odds for all sports and a $520 FREE Bonus)!

This week we have 3 head to head selection to offer you….

Jason Day +110 over Matt Kuchar – Though Kuch continues to finish inside the Top 25; Day is going for the win. This course and situation sets of great for Jason, and I look for him to take full advantage.

Adam Scott –140 over Phil Mickelson – Phil didn’t not look confident last week, which surprised me. I look for Adam, much like his fellow Aussies, to play very well this week. We are going with Scott over lefty on this one.

KJ Choi –130 over Gary Woodland – Two players I expect to finish inside the Top 15, but I give the edge to KJ. He has the course knowledge at East Lake and I feel that will make the difference. Lay the juice and go with KJ.

I hope everyone enjoys what should be a terrific golf tournament.

As always I can be reached at steve@golfpicks.net with any questions!

Steve

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Since I was young I’ve spent as much time on the golf course as the weather will allow me to. As I began to bet on sports I figured I would try my luck at the sport I know the best - golf. I began hitting winners on a regular basis and have turned it into a really solid part time income profiting in 8 of the last 9 years.

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